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 Will the Euro survive, Yes or No

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willowsend
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PostSubject: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Fri Jul 22, 2011 2:15 pm

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[size=150:1io4w701]Bulgaria has decided to 'indefinitely' delay talks to join the euro

Read more: [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] ... z1SprYWTm7

Where does this leave the Leva being pegged against the Euro I wonder
Please read the bit about "
Things are so bad even Bulgaria won't join"
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nu2bg
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Sat Aug 06, 2011 4:39 pm

I think there is more chance of an ice cream surviving in the dessert
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bigsal
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Sat Aug 06, 2011 8:35 pm

The Euro will survive ..........too expensive and cumbersome to revert to each countries original currency IMO
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Sun Aug 07, 2011 12:23 am

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:
The Euro will survive ..........too expensive and cumbersome to revert to each countries original currency IMO

There are at least three countries in Europe who have kept their own currency stack away so it would't cost them to much to revert
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Sun Aug 07, 2011 11:06 am

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:
[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:
The Euro will survive ..........too expensive and cumbersome to revert to each countries original currency IMO

There are at least three countries in Europe who have kept their own currency stack away so it would't cost them to much to revert

And those who chose not to join.....however still think it won't happen ..too much to loose .....I know not much left to loose .......but still can't see it happening .
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BGTRAVELLER
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Sun Aug 07, 2011 11:09 am

Personally I don't think there is much of it left ? its just a case of working out a plan to get rid of it which is where the fun begins.
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oldun
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Sun Aug 07, 2011 12:07 pm

Point one: Money was presumably given to joining countries to improve themselves in order to pay back the loan and progress. It didn't happen.
point 2: It surely will not be anymore of a problem reverting to a country's original currency than it was to go into the euro. If a country goes bankrupt then the euro will have to go.
Any ordinary person with any knowledge of the Greeks, (or other countries for that matter) would know that its not in their nature to make repayments. It was a gift!!!!! Also, a gift which didn't reach ordinary folks pockets in many cases.
However, now even the USA has a debt crisis. Whatever has been going on? How did the world leaders get us into this state of affairs? We elect and trust governments to keep the books. This is far more than the proletariate maxing out their credit cards and mortgage debt which the banks allowed.
It is definitely touch and go if the euro will survive and then there will be another 'domino effect'. Financial chaos reigns.
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willowsend
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Sun Aug 07, 2011 12:11 pm

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:
Personally I don't think there is much of it left ? its just a case of working out a plan to get rid of it which is where the fun begins.

If it should happen, where does that leave Bulgaria with the lev pegged to the euro, anybody got inside information or if you like personal views
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PostSubject: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Sun Aug 07, 2011 3:49 pm

[size=50:1rr6wy9n]Daily Telegraph

[size=150:1rr6wy9n]Debt crisis: Is this the end for the euro?
Europe's leaders, policymakers and bond vigilantes are engaged in a fatal three-way game of brinkmanship. The showdown will see either careers bite the dust or the end of the euro. Somehow, though, the ultimate price will be paid.

If Italy faced the prospect of being unable to finance its debts, it would be open season not only on the euro but on global markets.
And, with €9bn (£7.8bn) of eurozone government debt held in the bond markets, you need to be brave to bet against the vigilantes.
Last week the euro hit crisis point. Silvio Berlusconi was forced into a shame-faced climbdown over his handling of Italy's economy. A €48bn austerity programme will be front-loaded, asset sales accelerated and the country's outdated labour practices liberalised. The measures will mean the public feels the pain of austerity before Italy's elections in 2013.
Victory for the vigilantes. But victory, too, for the European Central Bank (ECB) and Germany's hardliners who have been pressing Italy to move faster.
Italy has been in the gunsights of the vigilantes since mid-June, shortly after Standard &
Poor's put its credit rating on watch. At that point, its benchmark 10-year bond was at 4.8pc and beginning a slow, precipitous climb. First, Berlusconi started an ill-fated game of chicken with the markets – by launching open warfare against his fiscally conservative finance minister Giulio Tremonti.
Tremonti, it seemed, was an obstacle to more electorate-cheering deficit spending. Berlusconi blinked and Tremonti stayed.

Still the bonds ticked up, rising above the key 5pc threshold in early July. But Italy did nothing. Last week, as panic spread and Italy's bonds hit 6.189pc it became clear that the markets had shut the country out. In less than three weeks, contagion risk had transferred from Spain – so long in the gunsights – to Italy.
Since July 21, Italian 10-year bond yields have leap-frogged Spain's, rising 76 basis points while Spanish yields are up 33 basis points. With €370bn (£322bn) of funding needed for 2011, much of which was scheduled for the second half of the year, Italy was suddenly facing the prospect of running out of cash before the end of September.
Berlusconi has also committed to a balanced budget by 2013 – compared to a current forecast deficit of 3.4pc of GDP, according to the IMF. That implies a significant amount of austerity over the next two years – and may mean more than just front-loading the current plan to deliver, David Owen at Jefferies International argued.
A funding crisis may have been of Italian making, but it would not be isolated to Italy. The eurozone would have to come to its aid. But Italy is not Greece. Italy's funding requirement this year is larger than the entire stock of Greek debt. It is the third largest sovereign debt market in the world, with €1.8 trillion of outstanding bonds. Rescuing Italy could stretch the eurozone to breaking point. Getting ahead of the markets was therefore vital, to kill the thought before it spread.
But then, the ECB joined in the game of brinkmanship. Instead of buying Spanish and Italian debt it bought Portuguese and Irish as rumours circulated that the two bailed-out nations were being rewarded for implementing austerity. It was an almost aggressive challenge to Italy.
According to Luc Coene, a Belgian member of the ECB's governing council, the central bank had not vetoed buying Italian and Spanish bonds, but it wanted both countries to take further action to earn central bank support.
"
I certainly think the central bank is ready to take significant measures to help the situation,"
he said. "
But first countries need to take measures."

If the ECB could claim victory, then, by forcing Berlusconi's hand, it would come at a high cost. Markets have lost faith in the political will in Europe to prevent an escalation of the crisis. Particularly as the events of the past few days have exposed the deep divisions in policy.
Four out of the 23 ECB governing council members, including powerful German Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann, were reported to have voted against the bond purchases. ECB chief economist Juergen Stark and the Dutch and Luxembourg central bankers also apparently dissented.
Such deep political divisions raise serious questions about the euro project – the first of which must be whether leaders expand the size of the eurozone bail-out fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).
On July 21, when Greece's second rescue package was agreed, the EFSF was also bolstered from €250bn to €440bn and the terms of its operations broadened to make it more nimble. But, to provide a real firebreak, the EFSF needs about €2 trillion, analysts reckon – to cover Italy's €1.8bn national debts and Spain's €640bn. As it stands, the EFSF is woefully inadequate and, given German opposition to ECB purchases, the chances of it being strengthened now look weak.
The game of brinkmanship is now between the bond markets and the eurozone, with Germany holding the balance of power. A hastily convened meeting of G7 finance ministers to be held within "
the next few days"
, proposed by Italy on Friday night and apparently supported by the incumbent French, will put the EFSF top of the agenda. "
Furthering the scope of the facility,"
will be the key topic, a source said.
With no backstop in place, and if Italy faced the prospect of being unable to finance its debts, it would be open season not only on the euro but on global markets. "
Lehman Brothers on steroids"
, is how some traders have described the chaos and depression that would ensue.
Like the 2008 crisis, the latest one is all about confidence. As Citi's European economist Giada Giani put it: "
We do not think fundamental macro developments in Italy and Spain are such as to justify a significant increase in solvency concerns. More likely, it is the lack of an adequate policy response at the EU level and the absence of a 'lender of last resort' for these two large euro countries which are increasing liquidity risks."

Having let the crisis get so out of hand, buying that confidence will not be cheap. In Germany, in particular, Angela Merkel may exhaust her remaining political capital if she throws more taxpayer money into creating a viable eurozone firebreak.
Nick Bullman, managing director of ratings agency CheckRisk, believes the biggest risk now is that Germany, the Netherlands and Finland – the strong euro members – leave. A two-tier euro could emerge with the weaker nations on the old euro pegged to the stronger ones' new euro.
He is not alone. The Centre for Economics and Business Research has put the chances of the euro being in its current form in 10 years' time at just 20pc. It is the one denouement in the game of brinkmanship that the bondholders might lose.
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willowsend
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Sun Aug 07, 2011 5:10 pm

After reading that lot ifchyfeet, I am, just like the Euro. EXHAUSTED
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Sun Aug 07, 2011 5:53 pm

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] wrote:
After reading that lot ifchyfeet, I am, just like the Euro. EXHAUSTED

I feel exhausted as well willowsend the temperature here in Altinkum is a blistering 36C in the shade and upwards during the day. The effort required to reach across the table with my sun drenched bronzed body to secure a thirst quenching glass of amber nectar is almost too much. The sun has this effect of zapping any meagre strength we have to go about our daily chores, before sitting down anywhere near the sun a drip tray is required to be slid under the chair!! We will be glad to see September arrive with some more tolerable weather than August in this arid desert in Asia Minor.

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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:21 am

An inevitable end for a stupid currency, that was never going to work in the first place. It has caused more grief across Europe, in direct proportion to all the hassle and expense that being a member state of the ridiculous EU is in the first place. Nations, when they can in reality least afford it, have spent millions of their taxpayers cash propping up not only the wretched EU circus, but, now supporting the failing Euro currency with it. Learn from the lessons of those nations that told the EU to go to hell, Norway, Switzerland etc. I won't tell you all how much of YOUR income tax goes to pay our annual subscription as a EU member state. Make sure your sitting down at home when you find out, it will shock you rigid when you read the yearly figure, oh, and we still have to pay it even tho' we are suffering all of this financial hardship at the moment!
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:49 am

Even Germany is not rich enough to rescue Spain and Italy. No doubt other EU countries could come under pressure after these as the EU is a spendthrift organisation with such huge debts that redistributing these among the the few highly productive northern countries will create an impossible financial burden. Rating companies will soon work out the new risks overall which will lead to Germany and others facing higher interest rates. There is no way EU politicians can convert the southern population of the EU into German-like individuals who favour saving and investing in a technological future thus having world beating products to give increased GDP year on year.
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Mon Aug 08, 2011 4:02 pm

maybe this will be a wakeup call for entire Europe, what all countries need is not new austerity programmes but rather a bold and aggressive deregulation law on labor combined with new lower taxation system. we need to give economy a chance to take a breath again and bolster so much wanted growth. ECE must take stronger control over budgeting in each and every country for the future if we like it or not. It is once again clear that Britain takes a negative approach at the same time forgetting that British economy is in worse shape than most larger countries of the euro zone. one can just hope Angela Merkel will not give up easily on bold future plans that could help not only Germany but the entire euro-zone.
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Wed Sep 14, 2011 7:10 pm

[size=55:nd2vz2fs]novinite

Bulgaria's Export May Suffer from Debt Crises in US, Europe

Bulgaria's export may be hit by the debt crisis in the US and many European countries, according to Georgi Stoev, economist and managing associate at Industry Watch.

In a Monday interview for Darik radio, he said that the world was now much better prepared for a new wave of an economic and financial crisis and was set to face a longer period of stagnation than originally forecast.

The economic expert conceded that the only remedy in this case was the reduction of budget deficits, which would not be easy for economies like the French, the German or that of the UK.

When asked whether the 2008 crisis, which started in America and spread to the rest of the world, would recur, Stoev said that "
a repeat of the same episode of the same series will not take place, but a new episode of a longer period of stagnation is quite likely"
.

Stoev further explained that the impact of the new downturn would grow tangible much faster in comparison with the past meltdown, which took about a year to hit Bulgaria.

According to the economist, as regards demand for industrial raw materials and the orientation towards Bulgarian exporters, the problem would be felt immediately.

"
Bulgarian exporters will experience reduced orders the very moment industrial production in Europe shrinks"
, Stoev declared.

In his opinion, export rates would suffer, but it would be far-fetched to say that the segment propelled the economy forward.

"
A growth of 0.5-1.6% can hardly be called a real upward movement, so maybe we should refrain from talk of "
engines"
and "
locomotives"
, the senior economist emphasized.

"
Although many people lost their jobs over the past few years, I think that many people believe that things will take a turn for the better this year. I can see that the new-car market, the real estate market, etc, are livening up against the backdrop of these capital expenses. So I cannot tell if we are currently experiencing the most acute bout of the crisis, perhaps the worst is yet to come"
, Stoev concluded.

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willowsend
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Wed Sep 14, 2011 7:21 pm

As there are many new members on this forum since this topic was started, I thought I would bring it back to life which is more than we can say for the present situation in Europe and of course the Euro. Your chance to have your say and have a vote. It won't change Europe but it will allow us to exchange views :Thank you:There is plenty of meat on this bone
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