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 Will the Euro survive, Yes or No

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willowsend
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PostSubject: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Fri Jul 22, 2011 2:15 pm

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[size=150:1io4w701]Bulgaria has decided to 'indefinitely' delay talks to join the euro

Read more: [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.] ... z1SprYWTm7

Where does this leave the Leva being pegged against the Euro I wonder
Please read the bit about "
Things are so bad even Bulgaria won't join"
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oldun
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Sat Jan 14, 2012 1:29 pm

So S&
P believe fairy stories do they? Tosh - on those grounds they could have just as easily backed other countries with the same cant. I also thought that Germany is now having problems and about to lose their credit rating if they haven't already - or was I dreaming? Poor old Merkel, that must be coming as a shock. The great German super power is not invincible after all????
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oldun
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Sat Jan 14, 2012 1:32 pm

Just remembered that La Garde also pontificated that the Euro is okay and will survive - its just the countries' governments that have to solve their financial problems! Well that's it then. No problem. Where do these Eurocrats live because its not in the same land that we all do.
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itchyfeet
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Sun Jan 15, 2012 10:12 am

[size=50:1ysnwj6e]Daily Telegraph

[size=150:1ysnwj6e]Croatia suffers jitters over joining troubled EU
As Croatia prepares for a referendum on becoming the European Union's 28th nation, the Brussels club is no longer as tempting as it once was.

Its currency may be in crisis and its leaders at each other's throats, but Ronald Braus, a Croatian opera baritone, is still keen to sing a song for Europe. After years of struggling to find enough work in his native land, the 38-year-old intends to lend his voice to the enthusiastic "
yes"
chorus in next weekend's referendum on whether Croatia should join the European Union. Out, he hopes, will go the lengthy work visa hassles and queues in the "
other passports"
section at European airports, and in will come the chance to ply his talents in the opera houses of Rome, Vienna and Covent Garden. "
I will vote 'Yes' because Croatia is going nowhere, and it is better to be with Italy and Germany than with Bosnia and Serbia,"
smiled Mr Braus, sipping a coffee in an elegant Habsburg-era district of Zagreb, the Croatian capital. "
Sure, we may lose a little independence, but we will also lose a lot of problems. And as for the eurozone crisis – Croatia has been in crisis since I was born anyway."


Opinion polls predict a "
Yes"
vote of up to 60 per cent on Sunday, paving the way for Croatia to become the first of the ex-combatants from the Balkans wars of the 1990s to join the Euro-club. That fact alone is a matter of satisfaction to some, pleased that their immediate neighbour and former enemy Serbia has yet to be officially accepted even as an official candidate for EU membership. Montenegro, Macedonia and Iceland are ahead of Serbia in the queue. However, while the poll is being seen by Brussels as a much-needed vote of confidence in the EU's long-term viability, not everyone is in the mood for singing Beethoven's Ode to Joy, the official European Union anthem that has accompanied the referendum campaign.

One concern among Croatia's 4.5 million people is that after two decades of rebuilding their war-shattered economy, they will inevitably get sucked into the eurozone's financial problems, possibly having to help bail out southern neighbours like Italy or Greece. But fears about handing over hard-earned cash are accompanied by fears about surrendering hard-earned freedom. The independence they have enjoyed since fighting their separatist war from the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s is their first in nearly 1,000 years, during which time they have been variously threatened by the Ottomans, ruled by the Habsburgs, and run as a puppet state by the Nazis. To some, the ever-more centralised European superstate as just another encroaching empire.

"
I don't want to go into Europe,"
said Ivana Kasum, 28, who works in Zagreb's famous Croata tie shop, a garment that Croatia claims to have brought to the rest of the world in the 17th century. "
Living standards are bad enough here already, and they would only get worse. We came out of Yugoslavia to be independent, and it is stupid to go straight into a union of some other kind."
Since formally applying to join the EU in 2005, it has passed thousands of laws, by-laws and reforms to satisfy EU bureaucrats that it is fit for membership, and has also reluctantly handed over two former generals to the Hague war crimes tribunal, despite them being seen at home as heroes who merely defended Croat turf. Yet thanks to the EU's current woes, many are now asking if they should cancel, or at least postpone, what was seen as a dream goal at the end of that war. Blessed with beaches, lakes, and forests that are a magnet to tourists, and an abundance of prime farmland, they wonder if Croatia could not be like Switzerland or Norway, enjoying trade benefits with the EU without the commitments of full membership.

Instead, the lone parliamentary voice questioning the EU accession is that of Ruza Tomasic, a 53-year-old ex-policewoman who spent her early career in Canada before returning to Croatia in 1990, helping guard President Franjo Tudjman from assassination plots during the war years. She is used to speaking her mind - she received death threats from the Croatian mafia after helping get a heroin dealer jailed on Korcula, the picturesque island on Croatia's Dalmatian coast where she lives, and to this day still keeps a pistol for protection.
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oldun
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Sun Jan 15, 2012 10:24 am

Whereas it might be true that Croatia would benefit in some areas like freedom to travel in EU and financial handouts, I immediately thought it might be a case of 'Better the devil you know' than being sucked into Europe which is not about helping poorer countries but about becoming an empire. Bulgaria too voiced the same opinions on CNBC recently and still wants the Euro. They all seem to be blinded by a financial carrot which really doesn't exist. If all these countries are now in euro crisis where is the money coming from to help new entrants like Croatia??? Charity begins at home does it not? Sort out the present problems before going ahead with anymore incomers.
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Mon Jan 16, 2012 10:11 am

[size=50:12y1r6bz]Daily Telegraph

[size=150:12y1r6bz]Greece gets closer to brink of bankruptcy
Fears are mounting that Greece could be the first European country to default on its debt in 60 years, as the country gears up to salvage collapsed talks over bond repayments on Wednesday.

The clock is ticking for Greece, as a deal must be reached before March 20. Three months of negotiations ground to a halt on Friday night, amid a wave of downgrades by ratings agency Standard &
Poor’s aimed at a clutch of European countries, including France. The unexpected breakdown in talks between Greece and its private-sector creditors has taken the country a step closer to bankruptcy after a failure to sign up lenders to a voluntary and “orderly” 50pc haircut to their holdings. Greece’s finance minister Evangelos Venizelos said talks would resume on Wednesday to “bridge differences” but insiders remained sceptical that a deal could be stitched at such a late stage. The clock is ticking for Greece, as a deal must be reached before March 20, when the country is due to receive a further €130bn (£107bn) bail-out tranche from the International Monetary Fund and must make a key €14.5bn bond payment. The problem centres on the difference between lenders agreeing to a “voluntary” and orderly default – which would mean swapping into bonds with a lower value – and lenders refusing terms, which would cause a default.

This type of “credit event” would trigger billions of insurance claims through credit default swaps (CDS), insurance policies taken out to protect investors in the event of a default. The problem is that, of the €315bn of Greek debt outstanding, only €7.8bn is covered by Greek CDS. The vast majority of Greek debt is held by European banks, which have little insurance on their exposure. Most Greek CDS are held by hedge fund managers – accused by Germany and France of financially benefiting from sovereign woes. Some claim that hedge fund managers would benefit from a default, with Europe’s banks being the losers. In October last year, the framework of the Greek creditor deal emerged after a late night finance ministers’ meeting. Greek officials and the nation’s creditors agreed in principle to implement a 50pc cut in the face value of Greek debt, with a goal of reducing Greece’s borrowings to 120pc of GDP by 2020.

On Friday evening, the Washington-based Institute of International Finance (IIF), which represents bondholders, said that talks had not produced a “constructive consolidated response by all parties”. The IIF had aimed to implement a swap into new bonds this month. But the two sides still have to agree on the coupon and maturity of the new bonds to determine losses for investors.
The breakdown in talks has been described as “catastrophic” by insiders, who say the repercussions of a default would be felt not just by Greece but by all of Europe. The bond-swap deal, which aims to cut Greece’s debt pile by €100bn (£82bn), is part of the condition for freeing up €130bn of further rescue funds for the near-insolvent nation. Greece’s credit rating did not change on Friday in S&
P’s review of eurozone countries, as it is already considered to be deep into “junk” status.

Lucas Papademos, the Greek prime minister, said the new aid package and bondholder talks were linked and each needed to succeed for Greece to survive. “Neither deal can stand on its own. One is a condition for the other,” he said in a speech on Friday night.
“We are fully aware of how critical the situation is. Until these negotiations are completed, we face dire economic dangers.”
However, Mr Venizelos last week insisted that the threat of a disorderly default could be averted within weeks and that bond swap negotiations could yet be salvaged.
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Mon Jan 16, 2012 10:20 am

There must be no more bolstering up of Greece or any other EU member country, financially it is impossble to continue along this line of trying to save both the euro and the EU, they are both condemned to die and the sooner the rest of the world realises that to lose them is not the be all and end all of the world financial stage. The sooner they go and the sooner the rest of the world can get back to trading again. Merkel and Sarkozy are only saving the lucrative jobs, it always these two who are making the decisions and what a fine mess they have got Europe into. If the IMF had any sense they would shut it down at once seeing that Europe and the euro are dragging down the rest of the world.
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Tue Jan 17, 2012 4:46 pm

So more money will be created out of thin air and inflation will eventually become hyper inflation and the value of our currencies will continue to diminish, the way these psychotic leaders are going we'll soon have a currency with about as much value as the Zimbabwean dollar, but make no mistake it's the financial bods that run the world and the political leaders do what they are told to do by the financiers. Only we collectively can end this madness through lawful rebellion, which is our right under common law, but I doubt society has the stomach for a fight. I also believe that economic collapse is the real agenda, there can be no other explanation for this madness.
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Wed Jan 18, 2012 5:53 am

Have to agree with you there, cowshed-sarah.
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Wed Jan 18, 2012 10:27 am

[size=50:i5cgzezk]Daily Telegraph

[size=150:i5cgzezk]Exchange rates could collapse after a Euro break-up
With the break-up of the Euro still a distinct possibility according to economists and companies, we take a look at what new currencies such as a new Greek drachma and Portugese escudo would be worth in a post-Euro europe. Forecasting the effects on exchange rates of a break-up of the Euro and what it would mean for new national economies has been attempted by economists at ING and Nomura.

Their studies collated the relative worth of potential new currencies five years after a theoretical collapse of the Euro. It shows ING's forecast for 2012 based on their assumption of a dollar to sterling rate of 1.42. For 2016 the chart shows the average of their forecasts, converted to ING's guess of a dollar to sterling rate of 1.5. ING sees an immediate fall in currencies in 2012, which is shown in the red bars, and a recovery over the four years running up to 2016. ING predicts that most of the new currencies will not reach Euro exchange rates, except for Germany which would see its currency appreciate by four per cent.

The weakest nations inside the Eurozone would rapidly devalue against sterling by 2016, with a new Greek drachma worth at least 44 per cent less against sterling by 2016, the Portugese escudo worth 28 per cent less and the Spanish peseta worth nearly 24 per cent less. Both forecasters believe it would be a far from smooth ride if the Euro collapsed. There would be enormous uncertainty after a possible Euro collapse, with currencies liable to overshoot and be subject to high volatility.

In ING's complete break-up scenario, governments decide to convert all assets and liabilities into their new national currencies. Capital controls like transaction taxes are temporarily introduced in an effort to stop money leaving weaker members. New notes and coins are introduced as quickly as possible, but in the transition Euro notes would likely be stamped to mark them as the new national currencies, and strict legal tender limits would be put on coins.

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davshaz
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Wed Feb 15, 2012 1:07 pm

The current financial package has got NOTHING TO DO WITH HELPING GREECE. It's all to do with TRYTING TO SAVE THE EURO AND THE EU. We all know that the EU and the Euro currency are doomed, but the politicians will sacrifice the last drop of BLOOD to try to save their faces. This will all end in tragedy with the whole of Europe getting ready to call ALL politicians into account. NO ONE is going to trust politicians in the future - their gold-plated salaries, pensions, and expenses are about to end. I am not a socialist by any means, but capitalism must change so that the rich pay their fair share and so that they can never again treat companies and banks as their own personal cashpoint. The riots in Greece are because the rich in that country have NEVER paid a fair share in taxes.

Greece has fiddled its money for years, fiddled its taxes, and lied to get into the EU so they could continue with the easy money they knew was going to be thrown at them to fix their infrastructure. For too long they have been on the fiddle, not only the politicians, but many ordinary people and now the time of reckoning has come. What do they do? The Commies sit and become angry but do nothing, whilst the yobs try to kill ordinary Policemen who are trying to stop said thugs destroy their country. Setting fire to businesses that could help Greece pay its way out of the mess of its own making is really good Greek logic. The only people I feel sorry for are the people who have had their pay scrutinised and taxed legitimately over the years, the health and government workers as they could not fiddle their taxes whilst most other could just not pay anything and get away with it. They are sinking into a morass of their own making.
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Wed Feb 15, 2012 1:56 pm

This second financial bailout is all about saving the Euro in the interests of the German economy and the planned Fiscal Unification of the sovereign states of the EU. This has all been brought about by the political home grown power brokers in their deluded ideological drive to build a new totalitarian Empire where the people are taxed from their earnings to pay for the Politicos power base and lifestyle. The unelected in Brussels pretend it will be a democracy yet what they fear most is a Referendum from the people and they have ensured that we will never have one. The UK's national debt is being increased by all the money we have to borrow to pay into the EU and the IMF to support all the failing EU economies. The Euro has failed but they will not accept this as it would bring about the end of the masterplan for a United Europe and make the cost of Germanys exports more expensive if they had to go back to the Deutchmark. It is long overdue for the UK to exit from the EU.
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Wed Feb 15, 2012 2:05 pm

Davshaz :Good post:Spot on. Having had a business in Greece for 7 years on a small island, I can testify to the fact that Greeks have never wanted to pay their dues. I was probably one of the few businesses on our tiny island who had to pay every 'cent' in taxes and every year my accountant had another piece of paper for me to sign and pay for. I was the foreigner who had to pay over the odds for everything in order to be able to trade without harrassment. Whenever the 'control' arrived on the island the word immediately went around and everyone connived to have their receipts in place or hide stock. Once a year there was a 'court' held on the island and when I had to go because I didn't have a licence (too complicated a story there) I saw practically every island business there. All that happened was that everyone paid a fine which was pobably far cheaper than paying taxes. I was appalled to have to pay a fine and was not allowed to visit my bank to get the money. However, one very nice business lady opened her bag and gave me the whole amount on loan which was peanuts compared to the money in her bag for the fine she expected to pay.
We always knew that Greece would default - its in their nature. When they do, the other countries will follow suit in a domino effect. Then the euro will collapse.
I watch the BBC World, Euronews and CNBC most mornings and it is significant that the euro crisis has gone very quiet. Today another meeting has been postponed in Greece. I believe its just all on the backburner because none of these bureaucrats have a clue how to come out of the crisis saving face. I predict the biggest catastrophe is yet to come. China and America are having talks which seems significant and try changing euros into levs or sterling! I went into my Bulgarian bank yesterday to change 100euros to levs. They wanted my residents card and bank account and checked the note for forgery before exchanging. Doesn't that say something about the cliff edge we are all on???
Just read your post Carmen - another good one and so true. When I see the smiling faces of all these Eurocrats at their meetings it makes me think of fat cats licking the cream while the sick skinny cats sit watching their decision making.
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Mon Feb 20, 2012 4:20 pm

Slowly the Germans are going to pick off country by country to rule till they have world domination. Anybody who is not on the gravy train that supports the EU to me have serious problems if they cannot see what is happening. Sit in your own cosy country and read about Greece, because soon it could be your country and we could reading about them. Germany is using every countries money to allow them to dominate. s
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Sat May 26, 2012 1:20 pm

The Euroland should be with 'Alice' in Wonderland. What a mess created by the makers of this white elephant. Everyone should get out starting with the UK - by that I mean completely out. People keep saying the uk are not in it - then why do they interfere with our taxes, laws and taking out money? I imagine all those who are raking it in (Eurocrats and Bureaucrats) should give back what they are now worth. And Pigs will fly..... Spain did not run a massive budget deficit like Greece. Spain managed its finances quite well. However because the interest rates set by the ECB were set only according to the German economy, and no other, Spain had a housing and construction boom which it could not cool by raising rates. Exactly the same as happened in Ireland. But the Irish and Spanish politicians were kept happy by 'sweeteners' from the European Commission's regional development funds (our own money), thus adding even more to their respective construction and development bubbles. If anyone, after considering these factors, still believes that the Euro is a worthwhile project they must be mad or bad.
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PostSubject: Re: Will the Euro survive, Yes or No   Sat May 26, 2012 1:27 pm

Investigate what is happening here people. Germany is TERRIFIED the Euro will collapse. Why? Because the Euro has allowed them to have the benefits of an artificially lowered currency since its creation. If the German Mark was still around it would be worth a comparative fortune, instead the lesser economies of Europe are used to bring the average currency strength, represented by the Euro, significantly lower. Greece, Italy and the lesser economies suffer whilst Germany, as the strongest economy, gains massive benefits. The bluff should be called, Germany cannot afford to allow the Euro to falter so they should be made to pay for it. Or at the very least they should be made to give up their cushy lifestyles built on the misfortune of weaker economies that were too scared not to join the Euro. All those wonderful lifestyle choices available to Germans must be paid for, teh question is who will pay for them - the Germans or the economically weaker nations of Europe.
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