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daxman
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PostSubject: BREXIT Discussion    Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:45 am

Hello,

Not sure if this is the right place for this post, but I was wondering what the consensus in the group is regarding what may happen to those of us who have bought property and settled here once Brexit happens?

Thanks
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BigDave
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PostSubject: Re: BREXIT Discussion    Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:26 pm

I believe there will be a reciprocal agreement between countries in the EU which will allow for all existing ex-pats to remain and vice versa. It will depend on how we treat EU nationals who are living and working in the UK now.
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stigofthedump
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PostSubject: Re: BREXIT Discussion    Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:46 pm

Very simply as there are about 5 times as many EU citizens living and working in the UK. Any punitive treatment of UKex pats in an EU country will result in a reciprocal punishment to that countries citizen living in UK, do the maths and then apply common sense.

As so many citizens live here and the true reality that the EU is about to fragment, its a fairly safe bet that apart from some national benefits in the host country being removed (and from experience that is very little). The impact on ex pats after Brexit will be minimal for all the obvious reasons.
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pollypop
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PostSubject: Re: BREXIT Discussion    Wed Mar 01, 2017 12:50 pm

To me it seems the best advice to expats is make contingency plans for the worst and hope for the best, if you are in a position to get E.U. citizenship get it or find out what your options are, if you aren't start making some contingency plans look at what an American living where you live would have to do to continue living there and start planning accordingly or at least gather the info to guard against any shocks in the next two years.


If you are a UK expat relying on EU treaty rights and a Remainer ask yourself if you really trust the UK gov to act in your best interests judging by their most recent actions. If you are a Brexiteer in a similar situation ask yourself if you really trust the EU to act in your best interests.


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justbazz
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PostSubject: subject   Wed Mar 01, 2017 1:16 pm

I sincerely hope that an American living here doesn't have to go through the same rubbish that I do.
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oddball
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PostSubject: Government defeated on Brexit bill   Wed Mar 01, 2017 7:10 pm

Breaking news BBC 1/3/17

The government has been defeated after the House of Lords said ministers should guarantee EU nationals' right to stay in the UK after Brexit.

The vote, by 358 to 256, is the first Parliamentary defeat for the government's Brexit bill.

However, MPs will be able to remove their changes when the bill returns to the House of Commons.

Ministers say the issue is a priority but must be part of a deal protecting UK expats overseas.

Brexit: All you need to know
Reality Check: How many EU nationals in the UK?
UK has 'moral' duty to Gibraltar on Brexit

The bill will give Theresa May the authority to trigger Brexit under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and begin official negotiations.

The amendment backed by the Lords requires the government to introduce proposals within three months of Article 50 to ensure EU citizens in the UK have the same residence rights after Brexit.

But it could be overturned when MPs - who have already backed the Brexit bill without amendments - vote again.

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justbazz
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PostSubject: subject   Wed Mar 01, 2017 7:34 pm

I sense a very tangled and convoluted web starting to form...I suggest that you folk who live here full time, start to form your Master Plan...to cover any eventuallity.
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BGTRAVELLER
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PostSubject: Re: BREXIT Discussion    Wed Mar 08, 2017 3:52 pm

I thought the EU couldn't wait to see the back of the UK according to Juncker and Schultz - but now it appears not? I cannot think why they want us to stay when they think we are such bad Europeans? Oh yes, I forgot the MONEY! Plus maybe they're finally realising that Britain is serious about immigration and are worried about where all their exports are going to go? I saw the Hungarian foreign minister on TV last recently saying Britain is their 5th biggest export market and they don't want that closed off to them....
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justbazz
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PostSubject: subject   Wed Mar 08, 2017 4:08 pm

The cracks in the EU superstructure seem to be getting wider!
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willowsend
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PostSubject: Re: BREXIT Discussion    Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:20 am

Brexit Bill: Ministers Expect MPs to Reject Changes
World » EU | March 13, 2017,

British MPs in the House of Commons will vote today on whether to accept or reject the approved by the House of Lords amendments to the Brexit bill. If the amendments are rejected and the Lords agree with this decision, in theory Theresa May on Tuesday may declare the ‘’divorce’’ with the EU.

Ministers believe MPs will reject the two changes made to the Brexit bill in the House of Lords when they debate it for the second time later.

Peers want to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK and ensure Parliament has a vote on any deal.

MPs will go first, before it is passed to peers to agree or disagree with the decisions made. The bill travels back and forth between the two chambers until both sides agree. Once both houses agree, there is just the formality of royal assent and the bill is law. How long this process takes could be key to the article 50 timetable. In case of agreement, the bill will go for Royal Assent, after which Mrs May can formally tell the rest of the EU that she is ready to start negotiating.

If MPs do reject the amendments, Parliament could sit through the night to try to reach an agreement, and time has also been set aside on Tuesday and Wednesday
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Andy
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PostSubject: Re: BREXIT Discussion    Mon Mar 13, 2017 1:04 pm

No deal is actually quickly likely. The reasons are rather simple: The UK will only agree to reasonable exit terms if it has the perspective of a beneficial deal for the future relations. Fair enough.

However, the EU side cannot express itself on such beneficial deal because it needs to be agreed by 27 governments and 38 parliaments. Thus the Barnier team has very little to offer in concrete terms during the negotiations – it just won’t have a comprehensive mandate for the future deal.

In the end any deal is likely to leave someone unhappy or at least pretending to be in order to pursue some particular agenda. The case of Wallonia is a perfect example: A local government holds everybody hostage in order to show that it matters (when it actually doesn’t).

So either the UK is willing to agree to an open ended shopping list of the 27+38 “partners” or it defends its own interests. The first is not sellable in the UK and the latter does not fly with those assorted “partners”.

Now take out the popcorn and watch a two year horror movie.
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scott
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PostSubject: Re: BREXIT Discussion    Mon Mar 13, 2017 1:07 pm

Germany will realise that it has a lot to lose with less trade with the UK. Therefore it will force everyone to agree with a sensible brexit arrangement so we can all go on trading and living, while the 27 go one way politically ( to wherever I’m not really sure how that will work out) and the UK goes another. Surely this is not too much to ask. Alternatively the elections across the eu this year will tear the whole edifice apart , with individual countries doing individual trade deals as they used to. Maybe the eu won’t be around for the UK to complete its negotiations with, it only takes one more net contributor to leave
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BGmoaner
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PostSubject: Re: BREXIT Discussion    Mon Mar 13, 2017 1:31 pm

Australia has done perfectly well without a “deal” with the EU. If the EU wants to ditch Britain as a trading partner, fine. The UK will eventually find its way back to life as a completely independent entity, whilst the EU struggles with an resolved migrant crisis, southern Italy and Greece rioting at the lack of help from the EU in dealing with the crisis, the EU tries to set up a private army without the UK’s defence force, and moves to a “multispeed” structure.

Uncertainty and legal confusion were always going to be the price of BREXIT. That doesn’t mean the price isn’t worth paying. The USSR lasted 70 years. The EU will go down the same way.
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bigsavak
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PostSubject: Re: BREXIT Discussion    Mon Mar 13, 2017 1:48 pm

I would imagine that there will be no deal. However, each side must save face to show they tried, but alas – no can do! The UK side is already engaged in “other” activities – assuming there will be no deal. That is only right – given the spiders web called EU (Council plus Parliament). Merkel’s visit to Trump may help soothe matters, but that too will not be enough, as Merkel is by now, damaged goods. So – no deal. But industrialists on both sides of the “divide” will introduce interim arrangements – whilst politician prance about – be it 2 or 5 years etc. Not difficult times, but irritating “wait and see” times for all
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BGmoaner
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PostSubject: Re: BREXIT Discussion    Mon Mar 13, 2017 1:55 pm

I think the coming weeks will be fun i.e. after article 50 is activated. After that happened all smoke and mirror will go.We will see how likely an economic crash is and how the remaining countries deal with you. From that point on the Pro-Brexit politicians will get a problem. Because they promised a lot. One lady promised a trade deal hours after activation of article 50, Others did want to spend 350 Million Euro for the NHS. And all promised that there is no cliff edge and that that would only be project fear and scaremongering. In two month we will have much ... much more clarity.
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